The Alberta government's reluctance to calculate the cost of separation has sparked a heated debate. While Premier Danielle Smith has finally acknowledged the daunting costs and obligations associated with a potential independent Alberta, the question remains: why has this information been withheld for so long? As a former mid-level manager with the Alberta Treasury Board and Finance Ministry, I find this situation particularly intriguing. Here's my analysis and commentary on this complex issue.
The Political Maneuvering
Smith's about-face is indeed whiplash-inducing. Her consistent grievance rhetoric and policies have promoted the ideology underpinning the province's separatist movement. Lowering the threshold for a citizen-initiated referendum and ordering a referendum on October 19th, despite a judge's ruling, are clear indicators of her political strategy. The Opposition NDP and columnists have criticized her attempt to appease separatists within the UCP, who are threatening to depose her, just as they did to her predecessor, Jason Kenney.
The Separatist Movement's Influence
The separatist leaders, such as Jeff Rath, Mitch Sylvestre, and David Parker, have been influential in shaping the movement. However, as political scientist Lori Williams suggests, their influence might not be as significant as they claim. Smith's realization that these leaders are not as well-organized or connected as they portray could be a turning point. This realization might have prompted her to take a stand, as many have anticipated.
The Business Community's Concerns
The Calgary Chamber of Commerce, representing major oil and gas corporations, has been exerting pressure on the government. Their concerns about the referendum's economic uncertainty and damage are valid. The business community's influence on Smith's decision-making process cannot be overlooked.
The Absence of Analysis
It is astonishing that neither the provincial nor the federal government has prepared information to counter pro-separatist misinformation. The Parliamentary Budget Office and the Bank of Canada have also failed to provide analysis, despite the potential consequences. This lack of analysis raises questions about the government's commitment to transparency and informed decision-making.
Kaplan's Analysis and Commentary
Lennie Kaplan, a former government official, conducted a preliminary analysis based on Trevor Tombe's estimates. His findings suggest a significant economic contraction and a reduction in disposable income for Albertans. While his figures may change, they highlight the potential economic impact of separation. Kaplan's suggestion of involving independent experts in the analysis process is a valuable one, ensuring impartiality and thoroughness.
The Separatists' Promises and Challenges
The separatists' promise to eliminate taxes and the GST is a key selling point. However, as Tombe points out, this would lead to unsustainable deficits, not surpluses. The pro-separatist fiscal plan is dismissed as 'off the wall' by Kaplan and 'fiscal fantasy' by Tombe. This highlights the need for reliable information and effective counter-arguments to the separatist movement's claims.
The Way Forward
As political scientist Lori Williams emphasizes, the referendum is not just about facts for many Albertans. It's about fairness and disenfranchisement. The counter-argument must go beyond numbers and fearmongering. It should focus on the benefits of being part of Canada, ensuring that Albertans have access to reliable information to make an informed decision.
In conclusion, the Alberta government's calculation of the cost of separation is a complex issue with political, economic, and social implications. It requires a thorough analysis, impartial experts, and a balanced approach to counter the separatist movement's claims. As an expert, I believe that the government's transparency and commitment to informed decision-making are crucial in navigating this challenging situation.
